tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post7215083131621113143..comments2008-03-12T22:45:50.524-04:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-55844745062596720312008-03-12T22:45:00.000-04:002008-03-12T22:45:00.000-04:00

Love those charts man! What's your secret?

DMaxnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22797747720787639602008-03-05T10:59:00.000-05:002008-03-05T10:59:00.000-05:00

Brian, I do not have a question specifically pertaining to this article, but wanted to get your attention here....I have sent you an email, but you have indicated that you monitor these posts more frequently, so I wanted to give you a heads up.Thanks

jworkm05http://www.blogger.com/profile/17979068720962030870noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-15740273879479440392008-03-03T14:16:00.000-05:002008-03-03T14:16:00.000-05:00

JKL-I know what you mean by tedious. I would be great to have a pay-by-play database, like FO does, but one we could share openly and build on. Sort of a football version of baseball's Retrosheet. I'm working on something that might have some promise.Anon-I love Herm, but he's afflicted like all the other coaches out there. I think coaches are thinking of "how far they've come" too. Billick's

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59211581433892026452008-03-03T09:31:00.000-05:002008-03-03T09:31:00.000-05:00

Herm Edwards, coaching the Jets, did the same thing, down three. I think it was fourth and one or two. With the win or loss in his hands if he goes for it, he takes the field goal and goes for OT. Loss is out of his hands!

Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-88369525012848956092008-03-02T13:44:00.000-05:002008-03-02T13:44:00.000-05:00

I did actually limit the situations, but like I said, I can't find the file (probably deleted it). I think it was probably something like the first 3 quarters, and only if within 10 points either way. I did go through the play by play, but it was tedious and I dont want to do it again. I agree if you just look at raw 4th down rates, it will be overrepresented by bad teams.

JKLwww.pro-football-reference.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-48108792063559787842008-03-02T13:13:00.000-05:002008-03-02T13:13:00.000-05:00

24-I'd like to do some work on that. But first I need a play-by-play database. In other words, I need the yards gained/lost on every carry, not just an average for a season or even a game. This off-season I'm working on a way to generate exactly that. But it is a large project.JKL-Interesting. I've found that coaches aggressiveness on 4th down correlates with losing, or more precisely,

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16019836213163165692008-03-02T09:21:00.000-05:002008-03-02T09:21:00.000-05:00

Billick's decision was inexcusable. You don't even have to rely on Romer, because he did not have to go through the myriad of possibilities after the decision. The equation is simple--chances of scoring on one play from inside the 1, versus chances of winning in OT. The first one is roughly 70%, the second roughly 50%. Not even close. He wasn't the only one to do that, as I also watched

JKLwww.pro-football-reference.com/blog/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-8374656137453568382008-03-02T06:04:00.000-05:002008-03-02T06:04:00.000-05:00

I love reading your blogs. Keep up the great work.Some time ago you wrote, that we might find out which was better, the straight ahead running back like Jamal Lewis or boom or bust running backs like Barry Sanders. Is that something you are working on?

24framesnoreply@blogger.com