tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post6264880295879179107..comments2007-08-10T13:21:12.855-04:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-15697299172833903452007-08-10T13:21:00.000-04:002007-08-10T13:21:00.000-04:00

tarr-I bet you're right. I've already put together the list you suggested and will have it posted tonight.It's just extremely hard to repeat good interception rates on both offense and defense. So teams that come to win based on very favorable int stats fall flat the next year. The poster child for this effect is the '02-'03 Buccaneers.

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-12412841207411864602007-08-10T13:14:00.000-04:002007-08-10T13:14:00.000-04:00

Another similar possiblity - high interception totals lead to a change of quarterbacks the next year. Or, high interception totals are common with first-year starters, who tend to improve the following year.It would be interesting to look at, say, the top 10 examples from the last 5 seasons of (year 1 INTs)*(year 2 wins - year 1 wins). My guess is that we would see the pattern form.

Tarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-71928495605793284602007-08-10T02:48:00.000-04:002007-08-10T02:48:00.000-04:00

With interception rates, I'm thinking it could be an adjustment in playcalling and coaching. With too many interceptions, they might skew towards really conservative playcalling the following year. With few, they might open up the playbook more willingly.

Derekhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17941314072950152029noreply@blogger.com