tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post5968272834149136597..comments2008-03-23T10:41:42.475-04:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-46022731703677049172008-03-23T10:41:00.000-04:002008-03-23T10:41:00.000-04:00

On an unrelated note, I had success in a pool picking road teams in the similar climate division matchups (excluding Denver). These would be the NYJ-BUF-NE games, all AFC North games, HOU-JAC-TEN in the south, SD vs OAK, OAK vs KC, PHI-WAS-NYG, WAS-DAL, GB-CHI, and SEA-SF.The home team in these matchups has covered only 42.9% of the time since 2002. When the lines were relatively close, or

JKLwww.pro-football-reference.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44890127546295404022008-03-23T10:22:00.000-04:002008-03-23T10:22:00.000-04:00

hmmm, interesting. Using the "simple rating system" (points scored, points against, adjusted by opponent), I've looked at matchups from 2002-2006. I haven't added in the 2007 numbers yet. So, this is a retrospective look (knowing how good a team turned out) rather than an at the time perception like point spread. But the better team by SRS won fewer times in intra-conference games, than

JKLwww.pro-football-reference.com/blognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-15326152775006130202008-03-20T23:16:00.000-04:002008-03-20T23:16:00.000-04:00

JKL-Inter-conference and intra-conference games are nearly equally predictable. Intra-conference game outcomes are predicted correctly by Vegas spreads 66.6% of the time, and inter-conference games are predicted correctly 65.7% of the time--not enough to be noticeable.The perception may have come from 2002 and 2003 when intra-conference games were predicted correctly significantly more often. But

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85171628434528041832008-03-20T10:05:00.000-04:002008-03-20T10:05:00.000-04:00

Sure, just give me a little time. I'd have to code each game. While I'm at it, I might as well look at inter- vs. intra-division match-ups too.I'd bet you're right. There is simply less data to "slot" teams between conferences. For example, we might have known that DAL and GB were 1 and 2 from the NFC most of the year, but where would they slot in the AFC? Unfortunately, if we look at

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-75746313540515565692008-03-20T08:15:00.000-04:002008-03-20T08:15:00.000-04:00

Can you sort out the AFC vs. NFC matchups by point spread? It is my impression from looking at results that there is more uncertainty (the favorite loses more frequently) in these kind of matchups.

JKLwww.pro-football-reference.com/blognoreply@blogger.com