tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post575123214190668152..comments2008-07-09T17:24:56.823-04:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-16338705576811725872008-07-09T17:24:00.000-04:002008-07-09T17:24:00.000-04:00

Perhaps good running efficiency does not help a team win because the team with the lead runs more often to use up the clock, and reduce risk of turnovers, they are less concerned with yards gained. The team that is behind knows that running plays are more likely and gears its defense to stop the run, thereby reducing the opponents running efficiency.It’s the same reason you hear announcers say “

Joenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-3277395705826256592008-01-19T14:00:00.000-05:002008-01-19T14:00:00.000-05:00

JG - You might enjoy this paper about run/pass balance.http://www.bepress.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1051&context=jqas

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-87442453090027430242008-01-19T13:14:00.000-05:002008-01-19T13:14:00.000-05:00

JG-Great stuff. I generally agree. My own theory is that running now in the NFL needs only to be good enough to do what you suggest--enable the play-action and keep defenses guessing.With today's passing rules, maybe a team wouldn't have to be that great at running the ball, just good enough to keep the defense off balance and occasionally get the first down on 3rd and short. It functions like a

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-63536762722197410732008-01-18T19:28:00.000-05:002008-01-18T19:28:00.000-05:00

" .... there are a couple reasons that suggest avg yd per carry is adequate. First, although a couple 70 yd TD runs skews the average, they're still a good thing to have. Average may not be optimum, but more is better and less should be worse."That's certainly true if you are trying to win a game, but I don't think this really implies that average yards per carry (AYC)correlates well with real

JGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11164150812219689611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-60154717434159177922008-01-17T21:34:00.000-05:002008-01-17T21:34:00.000-05:00

Right, a team that gets 3.5 yds per carry every attempt would be below average but literally unstoppable.I would tend to agree with you. There is probably a better measure of a team's central tendency of running ability than pure average yards per carry. I've suggested median yds per carry, but there are probably other ideas too. FO's "line yards" seems like a pretty good start.http://

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-56362782354000328602008-01-16T23:33:00.000-05:002008-01-16T23:33:00.000-05:00

Hi. While I certainly agree that in the NFL teams win with passing, measuring "running efficiency" by average yards per carry (I believe that's what you use?)seems pretty misleading.E.g. Lombardi's '66 Packers, NFL champs (12-2) and SB champs, were an historic run-first team (fewest pass attempts in the league) that averaged only 3.5 yards a carry, 13th in a 15-team league.I don't think anybody

JGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11164150812219689611noreply@blogger.com