tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-30708835362180151982007-09-04T15:32:00.000-04:002007-09-04T15:32:00.000-04:00

Chip-By "last year's record" I mean a simple regression based on last year's record, not just using a team's previous wins as the projection for next year. See the end note for the formula.What this does is simply apply a regression to the mean to last year's wins. So a prediction for a 13-win team would be about 11 wins, and a prediction for a 2 win team would be about 5 wins.

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.com