tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post3793931244517168967..comments2008-02-21T17:57:08.543+03:00Comments on NFL Stats: The Passing Paradox Part 3Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-45968602107626035922008-02-21T17:57:00.000+03:002008-02-21T17:57:00.000+03:00True, but the Football Outsiders' approach is simi...True, but the Football Outsiders' approach is similar only in that they grade each team on a play-by-play basis. But DVOA is an ad hoc retrospective scoring system for ranking teams, not a risk/reward analysis tool.What I'm proposing is using the risk/reward math to identify future optimum strategies for play selection and other decisions. I'm not proposing this as a prediction model or as a Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-6978414853749569812008-02-20T03:59:00.000+03:002008-02-20T03:59:00.000+03:00Isn't the Football Outsider's approach similar (ie...Isn't the Football Outsider's approach similar (ie, rate each play as success/fail depending on the down and distance (well the percent distance to go)?e6vVkDsTzJ9KJhTfpHwL41hOxUE-https://me.yahoo.com/a/e6vVkDsTzJ9KJhTfpHwL41hOxUE-#f199enoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-73937454665587544612008-02-16T08:21:00.000+03:002008-02-16T08:21:00.000+03:00Yes, the distributions would be heavily skewed rig...Yes, the distributions would be heavily skewed right. I'm not sure how it changes things either (yet).Good point about "getting out of a hole." A good passing team might have more flexibility on 2nd down. I wonder though.What if my team is a poor passing team? I run on 1st down. It's now 2nd and 8. Would I go for a run to make 3rd down more manageable, say 3rd and 4. Or would I want two pass Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-50662472985217395432008-02-14T02:16:00.000+03:002008-02-14T02:16:00.000+03:00Great stuff. It's funny, and unsurprising, to see...Great stuff. It's funny, and unsurprising, to see the Denny Green Cardinals as the most risk-averse losing team. Of course we all remember the infamous Bears game, where the Cardinals built a big lead, and then decided the best way to maintain it was to go double tight end I formation, run Edgerrin James into the line three times, and punt to Devin Hester.I disagree with one thing you say:A Tarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09242627723328062618noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-10615560633639314952008-02-13T21:27:00.000+03:002008-02-13T21:27:00.000+03:00Brian,Wow, fascinating stuff. I'm not much of a s...Brian,Wow, fascinating stuff. I'm not much of a stats whiz. Are yards gained distributed with a standard Gaussian distribution? It seems that there would be a fat tail on the right (positive yardage) side. Not sure if that changes the analysis at all.Matshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10924674588705166101noreply@blogger.com