tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2720787169871290133..comments2008-01-07T22:14:55.263-05:00Brian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-62149781940807641002008-01-07T22:14:00.000-05:002008-01-07T22:14:00.000-05:00

Tarr-Good point. It was actually very easy to do. NE's probabilities of winning every game came to 0.040. IND's chance was 0.019 (partly because they had to play NE.) (Plus teams like DAL or GB could have very small chances at 16-0 too.)The probability of either going undefeated would be 1-((1-NE)*(1-IND)) = 0.059, or about 6%, or once out of 17 years. My gut is that NE is a truly a special team

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-22523067501523882472008-01-03T11:13:00.000-05:002008-01-03T11:13:00.000-05:00

Thanks for the link. It seems you could actually run with Alan's approach and add some more solid numbers to it. That is, based on your stats, and looking back at the actual schedules played, what was the a posteriori probability of the Pats going 16-0? Or the probability of either the Pats OR the Colts going 16-0? I assume the probability of any other team is insignificant.

Tarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-58994552396360316772008-01-02T19:45:00.000-05:002008-01-02T19:45:00.000-05:00

You're probably right. But wouldn't there also be the possibility that they'd get to face the harder teams at home, increasing the likelihood of going undefeated? Wouldn't those two possibilities balance in the long run? I'm not sure...Regarding the mix of home/away games. Home field advantage is usually around a .07 advantage (the home teams wins 57% of the time). A 2-game season for a

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-13416440940146354602008-01-02T18:56:00.000-05:002008-01-02T18:56:00.000-05:00

I would argue that the Pats dodged at least four bullets this year - the two you mentioned, plus the games against the Manning brothers. Both games were close enough late enough that a flukey play could have swung the result.The .813^16 back-of-the-envelope calculation is not very accurate, because it implicitly assumes 16 average opponents on a neutral field. In reality a team faces a mix of

Tarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-85512866418177458662007-12-29T20:00:00.000-05:002007-12-29T20:00:00.000-05:00

You're right. Thanks.My error was in the fact that the Browns own the tiebreaker right now. But they have a inter-conference game tomorrow, and the Titans have a conference game.Assuming both teams win, the Titans get the spot. Assuming both teams lose, the Browns get the spot.I'll edit the original post.

Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-2191659787298494172007-12-29T18:41:00.000-05:002007-12-29T18:41:00.000-05:00

"...but the Browns do hold the tie breaker. So if they can beat a resurgent SF, they're in."Really? I thought if Tenn. wins, the Browns are out.

Tommy_Grandwww.fake.comnoreply@blogger.com