Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Luck and NFL Outcomes 1

First, I think it's important to point out that th...

2007-08-01T14:15:00.000-04:00

First, I think it's important to point out that the "best" computer models had a test set of only 2 weeks. From what I've seen, it's not terribly difficult to find 2-week periods of very high predictive success.By DVOA standards, the overall better team wins about 63% of the time, but that total varies significantly from year to year.To me, intangibles fall partially into the same

Okay, I see where you're going with this...I'll wa...

2007-08-01T14:13:00.000-04:00

Okay, I see where you're going with this...I'll wait to see part II before I say anything else.

I'm not doing a regression of 40 yd sprint times o...

2007-08-01T14:04:00.000-04:00

I'm not doing a regression of 40 yd sprint times or bench press reps. I'm not basing it on regression models or correlations at all.You'll see more when I'm able to post the rest of the study. Basically I just need to know what the win distribution of a theoretical skill-only league looks like. By a skill-only league, I just mean no luck is involved in determining the winner. The better team

Neat post. I am curious though - what exactly is i...

2007-08-01T08:46:00.000-04:00

Neat post. I am curious though - what exactly is included in skill? Agility, quickness, 40-yard dash times, strength...those kinds of things that are quantifiable? What then is included in luck? Bounces of the ball, stuff like that.I think there is a third category that falls outside skill and luck - the "intangibles", the things that are mostly mental and can't be assigned a value. Mental