tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post2300163214901976062..comments2008-07-04T12:31:02.592-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: Beating the Season Over-Under Follow-UpBrian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-90528087645989854742008-07-04T12:31:00.000-04:002008-07-04T12:31:00.000-04:00Have you taken into account the juice?Have you taken into account the juice?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-79120664765037815742008-01-03T17:55:00.000-05:002008-01-03T17:55:00.000-05:00Hence why I predicted Washington and Tampa Bay to ...Hence why I predicted Washington and Tampa Bay to be "bounce back" teams. Regression to the mean works both ways.Doug Waltershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03064547652967055670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-59742329354579049492008-01-01T00:48:00.000-05:002008-01-01T00:48:00.000-05:00The reverse would be true too, I suppose. Teams th...The reverse would be true too, I suppose. Teams that collapse probably bounce back more than expected. Many observers may not account for injuries, luck, or other temporary circumstances.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-86570311249945797972007-12-30T12:56:00.000-05:002007-12-30T12:56:00.000-05:00Remember Bill James' plexiglass principle, that te...Remember Bill James' plexiglass principle, that teams who improve a lot one year tend to drop back the next? I used that to take the under on New Orleans (9.5), and it worked. Barely.My "under" bet on New England, though ... well, that didn't work out as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com