tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post1031188730357000559..comments2008-07-17T18:05:26.362-04:00Comments on Advanced NFL Stats: NFL Win Prediction MethodologyBrian Burkenoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-36483966349676223262008-07-17T18:05:00.000-04:002008-07-17T18:05:00.000-04:00SSR turned out to be ok as a predictor as I recall...SSR turned out to be ok as a predictor as I recall, but not better than a yardage efficiency model. Just like points for/against it captures a lot of luck and unique game situations. Yes, points for/against captures ALL team data, but it captures even more noise. The finer the resolution in the picture, the clearer it will be.Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-39021302036801395302008-07-17T17:36:00.000-04:002008-07-17T17:36:00.000-04:00If you're attempting to use SSR as a predictor why...If you're attempting to use SSR as a predictor why not just use points for and against adjusted for strength of opponent? I ask because you say SSR is a simple way of capturing a lot of data about a team...well points for and against is a simple way of capturing ALL of the data about a team.Mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-44240186787928139942007-10-01T19:03:00.000-04:002007-10-01T19:03:00.000-04:00I agree for the most part. I'm working on somethin...I agree for the most part. I'm working on something just as you suggest, but I'm letting the season generate some more data before finalizing it or posting anything.I'm building a model around series success rates (SSR). It's the percentage a team gets a 1st down in any given series, or prevents one on defense. The average rate is 65% in the NFL. I would think that each teams offensive and Brian Burkehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12371470711365236987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-38600807.post-1745770243882544132007-10-01T18:38:00.000-04:002007-10-01T18:38:00.000-04:00Rather than assuming that including something like...Rather than assuming that including something like, say, first downs or TDs will overfit the model, why not test for he predictive power of these statistics?I sense some disdain for the FO methodology here. It's true they haven't done (or at least they haven't claimed to have done) any rigorous satistical analysis of the factors they consider. But they do claim that all changes to the model areTarrhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14368810359650066790noreply@blogger.com